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Three methods for trend analysis:
Futures Wheel
The Futures Wheel begins with an assumption that a
trend, decision or occurrence is given and then looks
at the possible consequence that might arise, both
reinforcing and deterring. The Futures Wheel looks
at secondary and tertiary consequences of the same
trend, decision or occurrence, giving a picture of
the possible consequence over time. It illustrates
how secondary and tertiary consequences might work
together to strengthen or weaken the original trend
or make it mute. The futures wheel does not predict
the future but widens the perspective and heightens
awareness. Futures Wheel can be a big help when one
begins to write scenarios and want to show
the possible consequences of a perceived development.
An example of a Futures Wheel based
on the trend of a growing number of choices of obtaining
renewable energy:
Cross Impact Matrix
Cross Impact Matrix is a quick and effective
process that can help us to understand how trends
and occurrences can affect one another. The ability
to make clear, understand and document such interactions
has shown itself to be valuable in many situations,
the least of which is decision making and prioritizing.
Cross Impact Matrix has its source in a simulation
called "Futures" that was developed during
the 60's by Gordon and Helmer. It was developed to
show how two parallel occurrences could influence
one another so that the one or the other or both were
changed or some unexpected result occurred. Other
methods often underscore a question that is seen as
completely independent, but by placing the question
in a matrix one can see how it influences and is influenced
in turn by a greater system.
CROSS IMPACT MATRIX |
| Trends |
| How would
this trend impact this trend? |
Increased unemployment |
More time for personal interests |
Less cash |
| Increased unemployment |
X
|
my own interests
define who I am , not my work |
more unemployment
due to less purchasing power |
| More time for personal interests |
development
of a hobby as a garranty against unemployment |
X
|
development
of personal interests that do not require
cash |
| Less cash |
more home
made and cooked food and gifts |
increased
trade for services |
X
|
|
Nine-Box Matrix
Nine-Box is a very simple technique that is used in
order to evaluate a groups understanding of a situation
or a question. With the help of this technique, one
can test for believability of an occurrence actualization
and the the expected effect of that occurrence might
have.
A series of nine-box-matrixes can be used to analyze
a complex of questions or problems and with the help
of mathematic calculations one can get a priority list
over the questions that are most relevant to monitor
or upon which to take action.
| |
LARGE |
Effect |
SMALL |
| LARGE |
|
|
|
| Likelihood |
|
|
|
| SMALL |
|
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