|
|
| |
Environmental Scanning through a collection of:
SIGNS OF THE TIMES, TRENDS AND TREND BABIES
1999-2009
|
| |
What is a Sign of the
Times? Signs of the times are the result
of information gathering that looks for inventions,
innovations, attitudes and actions. Signs of the times
come from many sources, are systematically gathered
and have meaning for the future.
What is a Trend?
A trend is long-range and persistent; it effects many
societal groups, grows slowly and is profound. In
contrast, a fad is short-term, "in", effects particular
societal groups, spreads quickly and is superficial.
What is a Mega-trend?
A mega-trend extends over many generations, and in
cases of weather, mega-trends can cover periods prior
to human existence. They describe complex interactions
with many factors and they often represent the introduction
of several new paradigms or worldviews that arise
in hunting and gathering, agriculture, and industrial
societies.
Trend babies:
Here you find general trends or signs of new trends
("trend babies") from the categories social, technical,
ecological, economic or political. Trend babies grow
from innovations in the above categories that have
the potential of going mainstream in the future (for
example: just a few years ago, alternative medicine
was truly alternative. Now it is big business and
very respectable). The choice of trends is naturally
influenced by the author's values.
Trend families:
Very often, the chosen Signs are members of a trend
family. A parent trend (for example, the change from
an industrial society to a knowledge-based society)
is well documented. The ways in which such sweeping
trends play themselves out in various parts of the
community represent the "members of that trends family".
Examples: Jobs in the industrial
sector have shrunk causing widespread unemployment.
|
|
Many countries see small business
as a solution to unemployment, driving unprecedented
attention to small business in many countries legislatures.
Another example of a trend
related to the move from industrial to knowledge society
is the privatization of the education industry.
As in all cases in Signs, sustainability
is one of the larger branches from which many other
twig-sized trends grow. Sustainability is "the property
of being sustainable", "using a resource so that the
resource is not depleted or permanently damaged".
In Signs, I use it to mean sustainable development,
"an approach to economic planning that attempts to
foster economic growth while preserving the quality
of the environment for future generations."
Confirming Trends:
When does a "trend baby", gain acceptance as a bona
fide trend? When it gets enough confirmation in the
various media to show it is an increasingly accepted
value, behavior or technology.
Geographical trend
growth and "bellwether" geographic sites:
There is also an attempt to follow the global spread
of trends that have started in the West (for example,
Women's rights are a generally accepted topic in the
media and on the Internet. Just how and when women's
rights develop in various countries can represent
global growth of that trend.) Some places seem to
lead development in one or a variety of areas and
are looked to as the source of new trends. California
has long been considered as bellwether for the United
States. The Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, Norway
and Denmark have been considered bellwether in social
innovation.
All trends, to a greater or
lesser degree affect our lives, our work and our futures.
Our ability to understand that effect can many times
make a positive difference in the quality of our lives.
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Tidskrift för
Kriminalvård
Roddy Nilsson
1999 nr 3
http://www.algonet.se/
~schlyter/TFK399.pdf
http://www.kvv.se/
Scan contributed by Mikael Mangold -
A Visionscentret Framtidsbygget Intern
|
Med sikte på framtiden
|
The number of convicts
is decreasing in Swedish prisons, as community
service and electronic control become attractive
options. The usage of electronic devises
is a good alternative to the last 6 months
in prison.
Increasingly harder punishment is
not a solution. Sooner or later the punishment
must work toward less recidivism.
|
More humane prison environment
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Trend Letter
Vol. 20, No 18
September 10. 2001
Corrinne Kuypers-Denlinger, Editor-in-
Chief
|
In Search of community,
Homeowners Find Ties That Bind |
Co-housing, inspired
by Denmark and Sweden is gaining popularity
in the United States. Between 1999 and 2001
the number of completed communities have
doubled and are expected to continue doubling.
Families live in their own units, with
certain shared facilities like, land,
community houses and tools. With the population
growing older it is expected that many
new communities will be older people who
want to be independent. They might share
nursing care for example.
While globalization continues at
a rapid pace, the need for “local”
or community grows. Co-housing is a way
to keep ones privacy and sharing and holding
down costs. One important aspect is often
shared values.
|
Local and small
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Mediachannel.org
Danny Schechter
July 18, 2001
http://www.mediachannel.
org/views/
dissector/covering
violence.shtml
Act For Change (Working Assets)
Media Alliance
October 2, 2001
http://www.workingfor
change.com/
activism/action.cfm?
itemid=12009&CFID
=2077525
&CFTOKEN=99769829
|
Covering Violence:How
Should Media Handle Conflict?
l. Decontextualizing violence: focusing
on the irrational without looking at the
reasons for unresolved conflicts and polarization.
2. Dualism: reducing the number of parties
in a conflict to two, when often more
are involved. Stories that just focus
on internal developments often ignore
such outside or "external" forces as foreign
governments and transnational companies.
3. Manicheanism: portraying one side
as good and demonizing the other as "evil."
4. Armageddon: presenting violence as
inevitable, omitting alternatives.
5. Focusing on individual acts of violence
while avoiding structural causes, like
poverty, government neglect and military
or police repression.
6. Confusion: focusing only on the conflict
arena (i.e., the battlefield or location
of violent incidents) but not on the forces
and factors that influence the violence.
7. Excluding and omitting the bereaved,
thus never explaining why there are acts
of revenge and spirals of violence.
8. Failure to explore the causes of escalation
and the impact of media coverage itself.
9. Failure to explore the goals of outside
interventionists, especially big powers.
l0. Failure to explore peace proposals
and offer images of peaceful outcomes.
11. Confusing cease-fires and negotiations
with actual peace.
12. Omitting reconciliation: conflicts
tend to reemerge if attention is not paid
to efforts to heal fractured societies.
When news about attempts to resolve conflicts
are absent, fatalism is reinforced. That
can help engender even more violence,
when people have no images or information
about possible peaceful outcomes and the
promise of healing. Demand Diverse Views
in Media Coverage of Terrorist Attacks
|
Professor of Peace Studies
Johann Galtung of Norway, presented 12 “Points
of Concern” in media reportage (Please
see Title column).
Act For
Change is calling for “people to be
able to think critically about what happened
and make informed decisions about what the
U.S. government's response should be, they
need to hear a diversity of voices and perspectives
in the media coverage of these events.”
It is possible for a new trend to
begin in media coverage. One example was
heard on Swedish Radio. September 24-30th
on a program which described some of the
reasons young men might be willing to
perform the suicide terror attacks of
Sept. 11, 2001. They up filled a part
of Point 5, by focusing on “ structural
causes, like poverty, government neglect
and military or police repression”
that caused these young men to act. Cross-disciplinary
studies are causing more nuance in explaining
research results, the concept of system
thinking is becoming more widely known.
Complexity is more acceptable when trying
to describe situations and reactions to
limited news sources is increasing. All
of these signs could mean that we might
see more reportage that follows the 12
points.
|
Trend baby- new paradigm
in media coverage. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
The Futurist
Cynthia G. Wagner
September/October 2001
|
Aging vs. Antiaging-Geriatrics
is in trouble while antiaging medicine takes
off. |
There is a new branch
of medicine called Anti-aging. The professional
organization for this medical field is called
The American Academy of Anti-aging with
10,000 members in 65 countries. The group
sees their work as representing a profound
paradigm shift in how medicine looks at
aging and the diseases related to it. The
goal of the group is to slow, stop, and
reverse the processes that make elderly
people frail. The old paradigm is represented
by the American Geriatrics Their goal is
to offer comprehensive health care to frail
elderly for wellness and prevention.
So much research is being done on
life extension that it is natural for
practitioners to want to implement the
results. This is also a paradigm shift
in the whole population. Survival until
old age was the driving force earlier
and now survival means never dying.
|
Life extension
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Cosmiverse
September 27, 2001
http://www.cosmiverse.com/
science09270101.html
|
Experiment Brings Teleportation
a Step Closer |
Using quantum theory
Eugene Polzik and his research team at the
University of Aarhus in Denmark have made
two separate samples of atoms (trillions
in each sample) interact. According to the
theory atoms ”can be persuaded to interact
with each other so that events affecting
one instantly affect another - no matter
how far apart they are.”
Ramifications of this type of research
could lead to “super fast quantum
communications systems and ways of teleporting
objects by instantly transferring their
properties from place to place”.
We are now beginning to see the results
of the new theories from quantum theory.
It is difficult to guess when we might
actually be using the results of such
research. Before you dismiss it, try to
imagine a person from 1700 trying to imagine
a computer.
|
The New Sciences
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Reuters Health
Health e-line
SOURCE: Journal of Consulting and Clinical
Psychology 2001;69
October 2, 2001
|
Self-hypnosis may cut
stress, boost immune system |
Many research studies
have been done on stress as a factor in
healing. Latest research shows that self-hypnosis
brings about stronger immune responses.
Many people might see this as another
of those studies with a common sense answer
and questions why the study needed to
be done in the first place. The fact is
that science knows very little about the
mind-body connection and how our thoughts
influence our bodies. The next step is
to understand what happens on a physiological
basis.
|
Understanding the Mind-Body
connection |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
UniSi October 15, 2001
http://unisci.com/stories/
20014/1012013.htm
|
New Solvent Systems
Recyclable, True Green Chemistry
|
Liquid solvents can
be used in metal finishing such as chromium
plating, batteries and metal waste product
reprocessing and more. They are environmentally
and financially positive replacements for
current polluting solvents. They are made
of a mixture of zinc chloride (found in
some skin ointments and batteries) and choline
chloride (a common additive to chicken feed).
They are non-volatile liquids.
These products are currently going
on the market and go a long way toward
meeting the environmental standards of
the Montreal protocols.
|
Environmental
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Michigan Land Use Institute
Keith Schneider
September 27, 1996
http://www.mlui.org/
projects/growthmanagement/
sprawl/nprcomt.html
Utne Reader
Jay Walljasper
September- October 2001
The Communitarian Network
http://www.communitarian
network.org/
platformtext.htm
|
NPR Living on Earth,
Broadcast |
New transportation and
land use policies are developing.
New planning policies ending a trend
to build large schools away from the local
community and attention to the needs of
communities over the needs of individuals
are being discussed.
All of these signs of the times report
on a longing for new policies that make
neighborhoods and cities that increase
the quality of life. less urban sprawl
and increased quality of life. An organization
that recognizes the different communities
within which people live and raise their
families is The Communitarian Network.
They fight for a balance between individual’s
rights and the rights of the community.
|
Local and Small –
Community |
from September 17,
2001
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Swedish Radio Program
1
Program leader: Martin Dyfverman
August 5, Time 17:00
http://www.sr.se/p1/
program/sommarrummet/
0131.htm
Utne
Reader
Pythia Peay
July-August 2001
|
"Fil som terapi"
Philosophy as therapy
Politics on the Couch
|
Norway has for some
time have had people trained in philosophy
and therapy who start a practices for people
who seek help with existence and other philosophically
based questions. They have their own professional
group. In Sweden two practices have started.
A number of therapists are beginning
to see a need to integrate an individual’s
psychological problems with their civic
or political issues. The feelings generated
by holocausts, the death of Princess Diana
or seeing homeless are given the same
respect as the feelings connected to the
relationship with a parent.
We are making slow gains in integrated
human emotional development even as we
become less human (see Bionic trend below).
|
Human emotion and psychological
development |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Dagens Nyheter
August 7, 2001
Patricia Bergenhem
|
Torsk - Från fiskpinne
till finmat
Codfish – From fish sticks to
gourmet food
|
In some parts of Sweden
cod is starting to disappear and the total
available fish stock is shrinking. The cost
of codfish has reach record highs. In Stockholm,
Sweden it costs about $20 for a kilo. Ten
to fifteen years ago cod didn’t have
the same status; it was used for fish sticks.
Watch for the same to happen with
other types of fish. The reasons will
be pollution, over fishing and disease.
|
Resource Depletion -fish
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
NewScientist.com
September 1, 2001
Damian Carrington, Glasgow
|
"Environmentally friendly"
explosives get ready for ignition
|
An attempt is being
made to create “green” bombs.
German Scientist Thomas Klapotke, University
of Munich, says that "It may sound strange
that the military are concerned about health
and safety". "But 99.9 percent of missile
launches and explosions take place in training,
over your own territory and involving your
own personnel."
There are a number of groups in NATO
countries that are investigating green
explosives, but are taking different approaches.
The end result may greater short-term
ad long-range destruction.
|
Environmentally friendly
war |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
GALLUP TUESDAY BRIEFING
September 4, 2001
http://www.gallup.com/
poll/releases/pr000905.asp
|
**Kids Back in School**
|
The pollster, Gallup
estimates about 2% of all elementary and
secondary students in America are home schooled,
that is, taught at home by their parents.
While it has always existed to some degree,
home schooling given rise to a group of
businesses that offer materials and advise
to parents. Of all Americans, 51% give public
schools the highest rating, so it is hard
to say if those businesses will continue
to have clients. Question- is home schooling
a trend that will move to other countries
where parents are dissatisfied with the
current school system? |
Education-
As education moves from teaching for the
industrial society to teaching for the knowledge
society, schools go through a period of
turbulence. Private schools and home teaching
are two reactions. As schools learn how
to teach for the future knowledge based
society there might be a return to public
schools. The trend toward individualized
learning might encourage more and varied
forms of schooling to pop up. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Metro
August 29, 2001
The Futurist
September-Oct issue
|
Sinnen kan återfås
med elektronik
The senses can function again with electronics
Rörelse
vill skjuta upp åldrandet
Movement wants to push back aging
|
Three articles spread
over two-page talk about remote control
of paralyzed muscles with electronic stimulation,
cochlea-implants for improved hearing, microchips
to send signals between a persons nerve
system and a computer.
In a search for the “post-human”
stage of life, Transhumanists seek freedom
from ageing, sickness and death. They
believe in diversity, success and the
right to spread their ideas.
Medical profession has a new branch
Many people over 40 remember the
TV series about a bionic man and woman.
Science fiction is becoming reality. Not
only are we becoming more bionic, but
some of us have turned it into a movement.
|
More bionic human beings
Extended life length.
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Fast Company.com
September 2001
Linda Tischler
http://www.fastcompany.
com/invent/invent
_feature/
simplicity.html
|
Simplicity + Technology
= Sweet Success |
Consumer complaints
on electronic equipment and appliances are
reaching designers. Engineers are giving
over power to designers who have listened
to consumer complaints for simplicity, elegance,
and user friendliness. |
Simplicity |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Ananova.com
September11, 2001
http://www.ananova.com/
news/story/
sm_395636.html?menu=
news.technology
|
Energy-producing homes
launched |
Twenty-seven homes have
been built for rent to social housing clients
in the UK. They are equipped with solar
panels for heat and Photovoltaic panels
to convert sunlight into electricity for
other household appliances. There is no
storage, but in times of high production
energy can be sold.
Private energy production was a trend
baby we introduced in Nov, 2000 Now almost
one year later this story comes from England
giving strength to the trend.
|
Private energy production
|
from August 15, 2001
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
The Economists
Jul 26th 2001
http://www.economist.com/
surveys/displaystory.
cfm?story_id=706591
http://www.economist.com/
surveys/displaystory.
cfm?story_id=706583
|
SURVEY: ILLEGAL DRUGS
How did we get here?
From The Economist print edition
History has a habit of repeating itself
|
Attitudes and policies
about drugs are changing. The emphasis is
changing from punishment to treatment. Earlier
we have reported on attempts in various
American states to legalize marijuana for
medical use. That was just a small indication
of the change in attitudes. The treatment
over prison issue was voted in by a referendum
in California. “Soft” drug possession
laws have relaxed in Europe and Australia.
In Switzerland and Holland would totally
liberalize drug laws if they had not signed
a UN agreement against drugs. Political
voices in Britain, says Michael Portillo,
advocate legalization.
Just as attitudes against gambling
and drinking change over time so do those
on drugs. The underlying value, which
shape our views is the degree we think
humans are basically good or basically
evil.
|
Values changes -Drug
legalization |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Trend Letter
Vol. 20, No 15
July 16, 2001
Corrinne Kuypers-Denlinger, Editor-in-
Chief
|
States Move to Reduce
The Cost of Prescription Drugs |
Twenty-six states in
the U.S. have formed ”multi-state pharmaceutical-purchasing
pools” in an attempt to lower the costs
of medicine.
The Pharmaceutical business is under
attack on many fronts. While this is a
phenomenon specific to one country, it
will be interesting to see if it spreads
in some form to other countries.
|
Reducing health costs
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Watson Wyatt/The Commission
on Global Aging Report
May 25,2001
http://www.watsonwyatt.
com/homepage/gl/
resrender.asp?id=W
-315&page=1
|
Global Aging- The Challenge
of the New Millennium |
Global companies started
efforts to retain older workers and the
trend continues. Of 600 companies 40% were
modifying retirement policies to keep older
workers on the job. Some are offering flexible
schedules, the best assignments, part-time
hours and reductions in travel and responsibility
in order to keep them.
The need to fill positions with older
workers has been discussed, but not how
this would be accomplished when early
retirement is the trend. It will take
a lot of planning, ten to thirty years
in advance to mitigate the potential problems
of an aging society.
|
Population changes -
aging |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Swedish Radio Station
P1
Nyheter från Vetenskapsradion
(News from Science Radio)
Weekdays 6.45, 7.42 8.55
August 6, 2001
http://www.sr.se/
p1/program/vetenskap/
|
|
Illiterate people can
now use computer technology. Indian Institute
of Science in Bangalore developed a computer
that uses pictures and symbols. It is called
simputer, Poor farmers in the countryside
can get information about the weather, what
diseases are expected and what pesticides
to use on them.
We know that voice technologies are
available for blind and other handicapped
peoples. Voice and pictures could level
out the differences between literate and
non-literate peoples. For now, picture
technologies are cheaper to produce and
it is thought that a whole village could
have access to one computer. Look for
other such computer innovations from India
for the poor and illiterate.
|
Technology relieving
poverty |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
American Medical Association
Medical Journal
Vol. 286 No. 5,
Barry Krakow, MD; Michael Hollifield,
MD; Lisa Johnston, MA, MPH; Mary Koss,
PhD; Ron Schrader, PhD; Teddy D. Warner,
PhD; Dan Tandberg, MD; John Lauriello,
MD; Leslie McBride, BA; Lisa Cutchen,
MA; Diana Cheng, MA; Shawn Emmons, PhD;
Anne Germain, MPs; Dominic Melendrez,
PSG-T; Diane Sandoval, BS; Holly Prince,
MA
August 1, 2001
|
Imagery Rehearsal Therapy
for Chronic Nightmares in Sexual Assault
Survivors With Posttraumatic Stress Disorder
A Randomized Controlled Trial
|
Researchers have found
a short-term cognitive therapy that relieves
the nightmares of people with posttraumatic
stress disorder primarily from traumatic
rape and torture experiences. Using imagery
rehearsal therapy, they present an active
reworking of the contents of their nightmares
to positive scenarios. These are rehearsed
in a prescribed way and succeeded in decreasing
the nightmares.
We continue to report on treatments
that help solve our deep social problems.
They increase our quality of life in a
way that technology and prosperity can
not, and they contribute to the health
of future generations.
|
Solving deep social
problems |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
World Watch Institute
Press Release on new book Hydrogen Futures:
Toward A Sustainable Energy System
Seth Dunn
August 2, 2001
http://www.worldwatch.org/
alerts/010802.html
|
HYDROGEN RISING IN ENERGY
POLICY DEBATE:Global race for "tomorrow's
petroleum" heats up |
You have heard about
the new economy, now we are reporting on
the ”hydrogen economy”. Companies
have been the first to see the applications
both in cars and buses. They could replace
not only internal combustion engines, but
also central power plants and batteries
in portable electronics-like laptop computers
and cell phones.
There are many advantages to the
companies and households who are early
adaptors of this new clean technology.
Iceland is determined to be the first
early adaptor country of hydrogen fuel.
|
Pollution Free Cars
and Sustainable Energy |
from July 31, 2001
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Earth Times News Service
NINA MEHRA
February 27, 2001
http://www.earthtimes.org/
feb/businesssocially
resonbilefeb8_01.htm
|
Socially responsible
funds in high demand in Europe |
As an addition previous
mention of socially responsible investment
(SRI), it is important to note that the
European fund management community is also
responding to demands for social criteria.
The U.K. seems to be leading with the French
and German following. An example from the
U.K. is Hermes Investment Management, who
manages a $73 billion fund owned the BT
pension scheme. They have published their
SRI, for 2001.
Watch for SRI criteria spread to
other countries as well.
|
Sustainability investment
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Utne Reader
Writen in articles by Jim Shultz, In
these Times and This Magazine Maude
Barlow, International Forum on Globalization,
Vandana Shiva, Canadian Dimension,
Daniel Zoll and Pratap Chatterjee, San
Francisco Bay Guardian
July-August, 2001
http://www.faithpopcorn.
com/trends/
atmosphere.htm
|
Multinational Corporations
Seek to Privatize Water |
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service's Mora National Fish Hatchery and
Technology Center recently won an award
for water conservation with it's a high-density
water-reuse system. It re-circulates about
1,500 gallons of water a minute, for a total
of 4,500 gallons per minute.
We have reported earlier on projected
water shortages in Signs of the Times
from November 2000. At that time the World
Resources Institute predicted that by
2025, at least 3.5 billion people or half
the world’s population will experience
water shortages. This series of articles
reports that water consumption has increased
by 25% over the past 20 years and by 2025
the supply will far exceed the amount
of fresh water currently available. Whichever
statistics are correct, water is a problem.
Futurists have predicted that water rights
will be, and are already the cause of
wars. Monsanto who is marketing water
in India and Mexico is selling this naturally
produced and necessary resource. Bottled
water sales in U.S. have risen 144% in
last 10 years.* In Cochabamba, Boliva
attempts to privatize the water system
caused strikes that shut down the city
for a week.
Tests in Sweden have shown that local
tap water is as pure or purer than bottled
water. Water is a natural resource owned
equally by all. Yet we are willing to
let some people profit from the sale of
a product we collectively own, even at
the risk of large numbers of deaths and
possible wars over this basic of all elements.
|
Water Depletion
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
American Demographics
Hassan Fattah
April 2001
http://demographics.com/
|
The Rising Tide
|
Marketing the poor is
a new discussion in the United States. At
least the lower middle class that now accounts
for one-sixth of the population. It is estimated
that the market amounts to a $120 billion
per year.
Marketing has been segmenting the
market for some time now. What is new
here is the in- congruency of seeing the
poor as a source of profit.
|
Trend baby- marketing
to increasingly lower income groups.
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Sustainable Development
International
June 13, 2001
http://www.sustdev.org/
energy/Industry%20News/
06.01/13.01.shtml
http://www.sustdev.org/
energy/Industry%20News/
06.01/01.01.shtml
|
GM Takes Steps Towards
Fuel Cell Vehicles |
Toyota Motor Corp. and
oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. are working
with General Motors in researching hydrogen
storage tanks for safe storage of hydrogen
at 5,000 psi. Driving range could then be
extended to 175 to 250 miles. Pushed by
governments and environmentalists to reduce
pollution they see fuel cells as the ultimate
solution.
The same site reports a new fuel for
automobiles. Dimethyl-ether (DME) is said
to be a clean fuel that can be made from
natural gas, coal or biomass and could
be used for power generation, domestic
use and transport. Within 5-6 years this
fuel will be approved for use in Japan.
BP and India plan to produce one million
tons a year.
This isn’t the first time we
have profiled changes in automobile fuel
systems. Looking at what research money
is being spent on and who is doing the
spending gives some idea of how soon we
can expect to see reduction in pollution
due to vehicle use.
|
Pollution Free Cars
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
Trend Letter
Vol. 20, No. 13
Corinne Kuypers-Denlinger, Editor-in-Chief
June 18, 2001
|
Consumers Thinking Twice
about Buying Into Technology |
Some companies are consciously
rejecting the common assumption in the technology
field that new technologies are going to
change mankind, empower people and bring
the world together. Forty-seven percent
of the American population are not online
now and don’t plan to be. Technology
enthusiasts in Europe felt overwhelmed by
the continuous presentation of new products
(Study by FCB Worldwide, an add agency.)
Every trend has it’s downward
swing and it looks the fast paced technology
introductions that we have been experiencing
may begin to slow down. There has been
little time to absorb the fast and furious
innovations.
|
Simplicity Trend
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
Trend Letter
Vol. 20, No. 15
Corinne Kuypers-Denlinger, Editor-in-Chief
July 16, 2001
|
Free Trade Pacts: A
Model for Economic growth |
Regional Trade agreements
are a definite trend. NAFTA- is becoming
the FTAA Free Trade Area of the Americas.
It will cover the area from the Artic to
the top of Argentina with a population of
800 million. China, Japan and South Korea
are forming a trade group as well. Trade
agreements between individual countries
already connected to different regions are
also occurring. The South American countries
have had the Merssur Customs Union for ten
years.
It will be interesting to see how
regulation developes within these trade
regions, will they be globally regulated
or self-regulated? The nation state will
be forced to change. A safe prediction
is that trade areas will grow in competition
with other trade regions and that competition
will mean that global trade is next.
|
Globalization -trade
|
from February 28, 2001
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
Office.com
Marceia Lathou
Feb. 16, 2001
http://www.office.com/
global/0,2724,57-22546,
FF.html
|
Green Policies Put Firms
in the Black New reports show that green
companies have a "quality" mentality that
equals superior financial returns.
|
Two bits of information
show that environmental issues are becoming
mainstream in America. Number one is shown
in two recent studies that support the theory
that corporate environmental commitment
can enhance financial returns. They have
shown that multinational firms that adopt
high environmental standards — even
in locales with lower standards —
are rewarded with higher stock-market value.
Number two: Some of the nation's largest
money managers are incorporating environmental
analysis into financial analysis in investment
portfolios. Larger pension plans are some
of the major investors in environmental
or social funds. Some examples are: Teachers
Insurance and Annuity Association, College
Retirement Equities Fund and California
Public Employees Retirement System.
The trend of integrating economy
and ecology is maturing and soon not considering
the environment will be unthinkable. That
doesn't mean utopia, we still have to
integrate recycling of chemicals and pollutants
into our "productivity" measures.
|
Sustainability- economy
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
Yahoo
Office.com
Latayne C. Scott
February 18, 2001
http://smallbusiness.yahoo.
com/smallbusiness/l2s/
article.html?s=n/
smallbiz/front/l2s/
20010206001
|
Hatchery's Innovative
Water Reuse Saves Fish |
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service's Mora National Fish Hatchery and
Technology Center recently won an award
for water conservation with it's a high-density
water-reuse system. It re-circulates about
1,500 gallons of water a minute, for a total
of 4,500 gallons per minute.
Fast recycling of water is only one
component, the second involves screening
out tiny particles and chemically breaking
down fish-waste ammoniates into nitrates
that can be tolerated by the fish. A third
part of the system provides an ozone treatment
that destroys bacteria, parasites and
fungi. Water treated this way can be reused
in the hatchery about 20 times and is
gradually replaced, at the rate of 5 percent,
with new water. In other words, at any
given time, the hatchery's water is 95
percent reused and 5 percent new water.
While this system is best suited
to water saving in hatcheries in dry climates,
it shows the quality of innovation needed
in this area. We have reported on other
water saving and recycling projects and
will continue to do so because water shortages
are major dark cloud over the future.
|
Sustainability and water
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
Office.com
Marceia Lathou
February 7, 2001
http://www.office.com/
global/0,2724,57-22249,
FF.html
|
Business Sets Global
Transportation Goals- An expert discusses
an industry-driven project that aims to
solve transportation problems at the global
level. |
Many of the world's
air-quality problems are transportation-related,
and new industry-backed initiative hopes
to lead transportation down a sustainable
path. Their project is Mobility Vision 2030
or what mobility could be like in the year
2030. It is a global initiative and will
cover the three main modes of transportation:
air, land and sea. It originated with key
players in the transport industry itself
— the nine core companies are BP,
DaimlerChrysler, Ford, General Motors, Michelin,
Norsk Hydro, Shell, Toyota and Volkswagen.
Some of the assumptions they are making
going in are that it is common sense that
alternative, environmental friendly fuels
are something that are worth pursuing as
well as good, integrated, public-transport
systems.
We are beginning to see some changes
in the planners of transportation, transportation
companies themselves. This is a big step
for them.
|
Sustainability and economy.
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
New Scientist
Michael Perry
February 20, 2001
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/
h/nm/20010220/sc/
evolution_china_dc_1.html
|
China's 'Nanjing Man'
Challenges Out of Africa Theory
|
Humankind's search for
understanding of it's development has traditionally
been explained by the Out of Africa theory
which states that Homo erectus in Asia was
replaced by Homo sapiens out of Africa about
100,000 to 200,000 years ago.
With the find in 1993 in Tangshan Cave near
Shanghai, China of a male and female skull
a new theory called new multi-regional theory
has developed. It showed that humans evolved
in isolation in China and much earlier than
previously thought. Small communities of
Homo erectus probably developed in widely
separate locations, but had some communications,
which explains DNA similarities.
While this new knowledge is probably
not representative of a particular trend
it could lead to possibly negative consequences.
If the new theory becomes accepted, the
family of man concept might also be in
question. Asians could be seen as a superior
or inferior race by those who have need
of such differentiation's. Are we prepared
for all the new knowledge we are able
to uncover?
|
Possible change in attitudes
to the fellowship of man. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
The National Foundation
for Science
Science Nuggets
February 24, 2001
http://www.nsf.gov/
sbe/nuggets/029/
nugget.htm
|
Into the Minds of Babes:
Examining children's fabulous capacity to
learn. |
Out of the research
of Psychologist Dare Baldwin come new tips
on how babies and children learn. Babies
use social clues The research shows, for
instance, that children as young as 12-18
months spontaneously check where a speaker
is looking when she utters a word that is
new to them, and link the word with the
object the speaker is looking at. In this
way, infants avoid many potential word learning
errors. They link words with the correct
objects -- the ones speakers are indeed
referring to -- rather than to whatever
objects happen to be capturing their own
attention when new words are heard.
Baldwin and a team of colleagues found that
autistic children lack these skills for
making use of social cues to guide word
learning, which leaves them prone to errors
in the word learning process. With doctoral
student Mark Sabbagh, Baldwin has also been
studying whether three and four year old
children evaluate another person's apparent
level of knowledge when acquiring a new
word.
Young children are less likely to remember
a word linked to an object if an adult speaker
expresses uncertainty about whether the
label is correct.
Infants as young as 12-18 months are able
to understand something about the intentions
that underlie people's behavior.
How will the fact that we are becoming
increasingly dependent on what we know
influence behavioral and learning research?
How long will it take to get this information
integrated into parent's basic knowledge
and into classroom environments?
|
|
from February 03, 2001
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
The Herman Group
January 3, 2001
http://www.moller.com/
|
Fly your Car
|
This scanning tip is
about Skycars, two seated vehicles that
fly without having to be a pilot due to
GPS technology. They are directed to an
upscale audience and are being developed
in an American market.
Since flying cars or individually
propelled vehicles have been discussed
before, it indicates a great deal of interest
in such products. It remains to be seen
if the buying public will accept this
”boys toy”.
|
Possible values change
reflected in increasing class differences
in travel. Car travel would be for the poor
and flying machines would be for those with
more resources. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
The Palm Beach Post
2001-01-14
http://b2bnow.yellowbrix.com/
pages/b2bnow/Story.nsp?
story_id=17422894&ID=
b2bnow&scategory=
Small+Business%3AHome
+Business
|
Telecommuting What Sounded
Good In Theory Never Really Took Off
|
Telecommuting has been
considered a growing trend. Now there is
question that the trend is growing in spite
of figures reported by The International
Telework Association & Council in Washington,
D.C. who say that Telecommuting grew from
19.6 million in 1999 to 23.6 million in
2000. Reports from companies and other research
show a decided lack of interest in letting
their employees work from home.
Telecommuting was supposed to eliminate
traffic problems, help those with small
children and older parents. Negatives
are that office morale and teamwork and
loyalty are lower. Employees fear missing
promotions, and resentment is reported
by the non-telecommuters and managing
is harder.
|
Relates to a general
trend of Changing Work Life. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
New Scientist magazine
Paul Marks
January 20 2001
http://www.newscientist.com/
news/news.jsp?id=
ns227439
|
A clear winner Magnets
and microchips combine in a transparent
supermaterial |
A new, thin, material
has been invented by the Tokyo Institute
of Technology (Titech) in Yokohama which
can be used in flat-panel displays. All
these panel displays processing and storage
circuits will be invisibly built-in. Because
the material is magnetic, parts of it could
store data in much the same way as a computer
hard drive, other parts could process information
like the transistors in a microchip.
This product is still in the research
stage, but it gives inspiration to possible
usages, Imagine a thin, transparent film
that contains memory, processing and viewing
capabilities.
|
Technology as a driver
in work and lifestyles. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Utne Reader
Paul Hawken
Page 72
For a clearer view of the relationship
between the World Economic Forum and the
World Social Forum see the Financial Times
Article and International Herald Tribune
articles reported on at this address:
http://wbln0018.worldbank.
org/NEWS/DEVNEWS.
NSF/46773469c477da
9285256716000f7221/
d0ac08d7d906bbba
852569df0054ccd3?
OpenDocument#Story3
|
5 Signs of the Coming
Revolution |
Paul Hawken describes
a new ”sustainability” movement.
This new movement started with a diverse
group of organizations each with their own
worldviews. Examples: environmental justice,
women’s rights, population growth,
labor rights, trade rules etc. They all
share a basic set of basic ideas about the
earth and it’s life giving systems
and fairness for to people. It is the fastest
growing and powerful movement in the world
today and a change from the earlier social
movements that started with a centralized
collection of ideas.
Evidence of their strength we have
seen in the development of the World Social
Forum, a counter-balance to the World
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland and
at WTO, IMF and World Bank meetings.
|
Globalization- social
movements, economic movement and sustainability.
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
The World Bank
January 25, 2001
http://www.worldbank.org/
developmentnews/
|
In Times of Trouble—World
Bank report says new forms of social protection
can reduce poverty |
The World Bank has just
announced its plan to create social protection
for the world’s poor by providing disaster
prevention and minimizing the risk of natural
disasters. They call it social risk management.
The World Bank is seeing the connection
between disaster prevention and economic
well-being. It will be interesting to
see what results social risk management
will bring.
|
Economic sustainability
through prevention. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
New Scientist
27 January 2001
http://www.newscientist.com/
features/features.jsp
?id=ns22751
|
Read My Mind
|
How do people develop
the ability to anticipate other people's
behavior and empathize with their feelings?
For example: A child watches her mother
pick up a toy. The child smiles: Mum wants
to play. The new neurons are active when
their owners perform a certain task, the
same neurons fire when their owner watches
someone else perform that same task. Vilayanur
Ramachandran of the University of California
at San Diego says understanding the new
neurons, "... will provide a unifying framework
and help explain a host of mental abilities
that have hitherto remained mysterious."
This discovery could represent a “great
leap forward' in human evolution”.
|
Life Long Learning
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Discover Magazine
Joseph D'Agnese
DISCOVER Vol. 21 No. 1 ()
January 2000
http://www.discover.com/
current_issue/index.html
|
The Year In Science
Technology Sinking Chips |
Chip miniaturization
is expected to reach a stopping point this
year, or very soon. Different light sources
are being explored for etching chips. Alternatives
to silicon are also being tested. Molecules
are being trained to flip chemical switches
of rotaxine, and Escherichia coli bacteria
are might possibly transmit electrical information.
For those in the chips business,
beware of needing to implement new production
processes and get ready to re-train your
people. If you didn’t see it coming
don’t say “Signs of the Times”
didn’t warn you!
|
Technology as a driver
of change. In this case technology could
effect jobs and education, economy and production
costs. |
from January 14, 2001
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Xinhua News Agency CHONGQING
XINHUA
December 1, 2000
http://www.individual.com/
servlet/BuildIssue
?mode=topics&
content_src=/frames/
topic.shtml?topic=277&date=
20001201&inIssue=TRUE
Associated Press
December 1, 2000,
http://www.individual.com/
servlet/BuildIssue?mode=
topics&content_src=/frames/
topic.shtml?topic=2874
&date=
20001201&inIssue
=TRUE
|
51-Year-Old Chinese Woman
Gives Birth to Test Tube Baby
New French abortion
law passes first hurdle in National Assembly
|
A 51-year-old Chinese woman
in China's Chongqing Municipality gave birth to
a female test tube baby, weighing three kilograms
afternoon.
The Chongqing Women and Children Health
Care Hospital is one of the three hospitals
in China that have had over 100 successful
test tube babies.
The French National Assembly voted to
adopt a bill that would change abortion
laws giving teen-agers the right to have
abortions without their parents consent.
These articles are material for a
discussion about our conflicting values.
One common thread is the woman’s
right to choose when she will become a
mother. How does that trend fit in an
overpopulated world?
|
Trend to give woman control
over their reproduction systems.
Growing trend- the acceptance of medically
controlled conception methods.
Trend to more mature motherhood.
|
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Center for Voting and Democracy
http://www.fairvote.org/
irv/index.html
|
Instant Runoff Voting
|
In light of the recent crisis
in American elections there is an election reform
that is rapidly gaining attention. Instant Runoff
Voting allows voters to prioritize candidates
as first choice, second choice, third, fourth.
Major efforts to go over to IRV are occurring
in Alaska, New Mexico, Vermont, Washington, California,
among others. In case of a tie, a series of runoff
counts are conducted eliminating current problems.
Instant runoff voting is a system that ensures
a winning candidate an absolute majority of the
votes over a marginal win.
Democracy is not dead it has just
been suffering from a lack of creativity.
Maybe this is changing.
|
Trend - Trend baby that could
grow to a trend if States and other countries
continue adapt it. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
The Economist print edition
p> Source: Aase Dillmann
December 1, 2000
October 26th 2000
http://www.economist.com/
displayStory.
cfm?Story_ID=404574
|
The Cinderella syndrom
|
Adopted, fostered and stepchildren
seem to get less food, education and health care
than other children. These are the results of
three studies at Princeton University conducted
by Anne Case. More than half of American children
will spend their early years with at least one
parent. It is that mothers invest more of themselves
in biological children.
Studies from over the past four decades,
the number of couples tying the knot has
steadily declined, as the number of divorces,
cohabiting unmarried couples, and children
living in single-parent households has
increased.
This information has huge implications
for social changes in the future. It will
probably be ignored as the trend away
from biological, two parent families is
still strong.
|
Trend- Trend baby that could
grow to a trend if States and other countries
continue adapt it. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
HSV Technologies Inc
November, 2000
Press Release
http://hsvt.org/
|
|
A company in San Diego, California
is developing a non-lethal weapon that uses ultraviolet
laser beams to harmlessly immobilize people and
animals at a distance. The current within these
beams is a close replication of the neuro-electric
impulses that control skeletal muscles. The person
being immobilized doesn’t notice it. It freezes
the muscles and doesn’t hurt the eyes.
|
Trend - Technique solves all
problems. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
New Scientist
Fred Pearce
18 November 2000
http://www.newscientist.com/
nlf/1118/people.html
|
People power
Forget big generators, in ten years' time
we could be making and even selling our
own electricity. We might even save the
planet |
Industry strategist, Karl
Yeager thinks that most of our electricity will
come from small generators. He heads Electric
Power Research Institute in California. By 2050
he predicts, energy will come from micro turbines,
solar panels and, most importantly, hydrogen-powered
fuel cells. Natural gas fuelled microgenerators
are in testing now and should be available in
2002.
A linked prediction is the use of "intelligent"
grids like those in use in California,
to collect and distribute electricity
at every node.
The result is cleaner power production
and cleaner air as well as being able
to meet coming demands for electric power.
|
Trend - This is a prediction
of a coming trend to electricity generation in
every home. Families or businesses will be able
to supply their own electricity and sell any left
over power to the national grid. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
Trend Letter Vol. 19, No.22
November 3, 2000
|
Big Business Courts Smaller
Players |
Small business has come to
the attention of big business. This new niche
has started in the U.S., but promises to spread.
Software developers, Internet services, survey
organizations and financial services are some
of the fields expected to increase company revenues
with small business clients.
There are 30 million small businesses
in the United States. Sweden, China and
others are encouraging the growth of small
business. Having been identified as a
market niche is important for their continued
existence.
|
Trend - Small business as
a growing market. |
*Source/Date
|
**Title
|
***Subject
|
****Trend
|
|
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Virginia Baldwin Gilbert Of the Post-Dispatch
December 4, 2000
http://www.brainconnection.
com/SITEWare/2000/12/04/
SLMO/0000-0689-KEYWORD.
Missing.php3
|
Pollution's Impact on Development
of Children Needs Study, Groups SayIllinois Is
No. 8, Missouri 18 in Amount of Neurotoxins
|
The National Academy of Sciences
looked at frequencies of developmental disabilities
against levels of pollution in various states.
They found that 3 percent of the developmental
and neurological deficits identified in children
were caused by toluene, formaldehyde, freon, zinc
dust and compounds of lead and mercury which are
poisonous to nerve cells.
More detailed research needs to be
done as to the effect of these pollutants
on the individual child.
|
Trend- Growing understanding
of how the brain works and what effects it.
|
|
|
